Under a simple majority with per-agent accuracy better than chance, ensemble accuracy
exceeds any individual member's and converges to certainty as the ensemble grows —
the spec cites the Chernoff bound's exponential convergence. Raising the threshold
M above p trades success rate for confidence: consensus becomes rarer, but
when it lands, it means more. If a supermajority is not reached, the system falls back
to the largest agreeing block and attaches an explicit uncertainty warning rather than
bluffing (spec §2.2.1.1).
The worked example in the specification: ten agents, each 70% accurate, with a 7-of-10
threshold reach correct consensus ≈65% of the time — below the individuals, because the
threshold equals their accuracy. Relax to a 6-of-10 majority and the ensemble jumps to
≈85%, demonstrating the ensemble gain. This is the quantitative case for DSEMA's core
efficiency bet: heterogeneous collectives of small specialized models, cross-checking
one another, can approach or exceed a monolithic generalist.
Specialization itself is manufactured, not assumed: new agents are cloned from
validated foundation models, assigned a machine-readable Specialization Curriculum by a
mentor agent, and fine-tuned through task-based feedback until a Verifiable Credential
attests their domain competence (spec §2.2.1).
Worked example · spec §2.2.1.1
- ensemble size N
- 10 agents
- individual accuracy p
- 0.70
- threshold M = 7
- P ≈ 0.65 — high confidence
- threshold M = 6
- P ≈ 0.85 — ensemble gain
- fallback
- best block + warning
P(consensus correct) = Σk=M..N C(N,k) pk(1−p)N−k